Critical Flaws in 2023 Hurricane Evacuation Model: A Call for Independent Review
September 5, 2024
Via Email
Dear Mayor Raschein and County Commissioners:
Our 16 organizations, representing many thousands of Keys residents, continue to monitor the County’s process in evaluating whether to request more ROGOs from the State. That process commenced last year, and in November 2023 Florida Commerce released the results of its latest Keys hurricane evacuation model.
Based on our discussions with County Commissioners and staff, it is clear to us that staff has not conducted an in-depth analysis of the 2023 evacuation model nor has an outside consultant been engaged to do so. Since the County will be making critical decisions impacting hurricane evacuation safety, we believe it is essential that the County commission an independent analysis of the evacuation model and its methodologies and assumptions.
Our review of the model has noted several flaws:
The model assumes that evacuation ends at Florida City, thereby ignoring any evacuees from South Florida and Ocean Reef.
The model assumes that evacuations occur evenly throughout the 24-hour period.
The model excludes certain permanent residents, such as mobile home residents, liveaboards, and college students.
The model understates the number of evacuees who are in vacation homes during hurricane season or who will enter the Keys before a storm to secure their vacation homes.
The model diverges from the 2012 evacuation model in ignoring future conversions of mobile home sites into constructed home sites.
The model understates the number of vacation rental units because it only includes those that are licensed with the local government.
The model allocates vehicles between mobile home and site-built units proportionally based on the number of residents of each unit.
Please remember that the State’s 2012 evacuation model was subsequently determined to contain a 2-1/2 hour error. This huge flaw was uncovered in 2014 by an independent analysis of the model.
At the August 21 BOCC meeting, you expressed your unanimous support for the City of Marathon’s request for 10 new ROGOs in 2024. Your rationale for this support was that the 2023 evacuation model concludes that 220 more ROGOs can be allocated without exceeding the 24-hour State-mandated evacuation limit and thus these would not really be “new” ROGOs. We disagree with your characterization of these ROGOs as anything but brand new ROGOs. But in any case, how can you rely on the 2023 evacuation model in this way when the County has not conducted an in-depth analysis of the model?
We request that the County engage an independent consultant to analyze the 2023 hurricane evacuation model and its methodologies and assumptions.
Respectfully submitted,
Ann Olsen
On behalf of the Last Stand Board and the 16 undersigned organizations
