Protect the Keys: A Call to Slow the Roll on New ROGOs

Dear Mayor and County Commissioners:

The Florida Keys ROGO Coalition opposes 3,550 additional ROGOs for the Keys as has been requested by Marathon and Key West.  This is the same number of ROGOs as was allotted to the Keys more than a decade ago, when it was determined that when those have been issued, the Keys will be “built out.”  3,550 new ROGOs is also far in excess of what the vast majority of Keys residents support, as evidenced by the results of the County’s own public surveys.  Please vote to reject many thousands of new ROGOs for our beautiful Keys.  Don’t let 3,550 more ROGOs be this Board’s legacy.

The Coalition also opposes the ROGO requests made by Marathon, Islamorada, and Key West.  Both Marathon and Islamorada are requesting far more ROGOs than are needed to avoid takings liability.  Islamorada is requesting more ROGOs than it has buildable lots, and Marathon is requesting more than double the number of market-rate ROGOs than it has buildable lots.  Marathon plans to issue more than twice as many market-rate ROGOs per year than it has issued over the last three full years.  Both Marathon and Islamorada have refused to conduct analyses of the acquisition dates of their buildable lots, which is essential to assess their takings risks.  And Marathon and Key West presented literally no analyses supporting the numbers of affordable housing allocations they are requesting.  Please rein in the municipalities, as these development decisions impact all County residents.

Slow the Roll. Like the vast majority of survey respondents, the Coalition favors minimal or no additional ROGOs.  However, if your plans are to ignore residents’ desires and proceed anyway, then the Coalition favors the least harmful option and has the following suggestions:

Consider Option IV for the County.  For the reasons stated in our letter to you of December 6, we prefer Option IV to the other two options for the County that have been proposed by staff.  While Mr. Shillinger has apparently rejected Option IV because there would be too few market-rate ROGOs issued annually to avoid takings liability, we have proposed to him a variant of Option IV in which ROGOs are moved from single-family affordable to market-rate.  This does not change the total number of new ROGOs for the County under Option IV, it merely satisfies Mr. Shillinger’s concerns.

Use the New ROGOs Over a 10-Year Period.  Reduce the numbers by reducing the time period. Marathon is requesting a total of 1,086 ROGOs to be used over a 40-year period.  Islamorada is requesting 200 ROGOs to be used over a 12-year period.  County staff prefers a 10-year period for use of the new ROGOs in order to leave your future options open and presumably also for takings liability reasons.  Please consider adjusting the requests by the municipalities to reflect a 10-year horizon.  In that case, Marathon’s request would be reduced to 272 ROGOs (1,086 x (10/40)), Islamorada’s request would be reduced to 167 ROGOs (200 x (10/12)), and Key West’s request would be reduced accordingly.

Numbers Inclusive of Any ROGOs Received Out of the 220 Already Requested.  The request for additional ROGOs through a legislative change needs to state explicitly that the number of ROGOs received will be reduced by the number of ROGOs that are eventually received out of the 220 that have already been requested by the Keys governments.  This is to avoid double dipping.

State-Imposed Conditions.  When the State approved 3,550 new ROGOs for the Keys in the last round, it adopted an administrative rule requiring that each Keys government use at least 20% of its ROGOs for affordable housing.  The Coalition proposes that this new request also be subject to a State-imposed condition that each government must use at least a specified percentage of its new ROGOs for affordable housing.  In this case, we propose basing the minimum percentages on the terms of the resolutions that the Keys governments approved.  In other words, Marathon needs to use at least one-third of its new ROGOs for affordable housing, Key West needs to use all of its new ROGOs for affordable housing, and a similar condition would be imposed on the County. This is to prevent a government from converting some of its affordable housing ROGOs to market rate ROGOs down the road.  We also propose that the new round of ROGOs be subject to work program requirements similar to those that are currently in place.

Tap the Brakes.  The residents of the Keys were promised an objective, transparent, data-driven process in considering the request for new ROGOs.  This promise has not been delivered upon.  Both Marathon and Islamorada have overstated their numbers of buildable lots by refusing to adopt the same methodology used by the County.  As stated above, Marathon and Islamorada also refused to analyze the acquisition dates of all their buildable lots, leading them to assume that they will either lose every single takings claim by owners of buildable lots or that every lot owner will pursue a takings claim.  Staff’s Option II similarly assumes the same. Marathon and Key West have provided no analysis whatsoever supporting their affordable housing ROGO requests.  The County website has stated for months that “[s]taff is preparing information regarding the progress made since the original carrying capacity study was performed.”  Where is that information and analysis?  And the infrastructure cost analysis commissioned by the County, which has only been available since Monday, is inadequate in several respects, including that it relies on the 2021 LOS traffic study, ignoring the failing 2023 study that was rejected by the BOCC, it does not analyze a scenario in which 3,550 new ROGOs are received, it does not consider the condition of the Biscayne aquifer, it does not address stormwater needs, and it does not adequately address the electric transmission “choke point” between Marathon and Islamorada or the cost of locally generated electricity.  For all these reasons, the Coalition asks that you consider waiting a year to submit any request for a change in the statute in order to allow the Keys governments to continue their analyses and refine their requests.  We acknowledge that recent statements by Florida Commerce staff add complications to any postponement of the legislative process, and we wonder whether that is the reason why they are withholding the 220 new ROGOs you have already requested.

We respectfully request that you consider all of our suggestions above and discuss them at the December 19 meeting.

Respectfully submitted:

Florida Keys ROGO Coalition