Coalition of fl keys organizations urges county to limit new rogos and protect community safety and the environment

July 12, 2024

Via Email 

Dear Mayor Raschein and Monroe County Commissioners: 

Our 16 organizations represent many thousands of residents of the Keys. We have  been watching with interest the County’s efforts toward taking a position on how many  (if any) new ROGOs should be requested from the State. In our view, the County has  not performed and provided to Keys residents the necessary analysis of the potential  “takings” liability to justify requesting new ROGOs. 

One of the alternative evacuation models run by the Florida Department of Commerce  was for 7,954 new ROGOs, representing the number of privately owned vacant lots in  the Keys. In response to this run, the BOCC asked County planning staff to determine  the number of “buildable” privately owned residential lots in the Keys. This was clearly done with an eye toward potential takings liability. Planning staff has computed the  number of such buildable lots at 2,220 for the unincorporated County and 2,997 for the  entire Keys (that number includes Islamorada and Marathon, the Keys municipalities  which have buildable lots in excess of still-available ROGOs). 

Based on what we have been hearing, including public statements by individual  Commissioners, there is support among the Commissioners for requesting  approximately 3,000 ROGOs Keys-wide. We believe such a number of new ROGOs is  based, for the reasons discussed below, on a flawed and incomplete analysis. 

The determination of the total number of buildable residential lots seems designed to  come up with a number of new ROGOs that would eliminate ANY potential risk of  takings liability. We believe the actual takings risk is much lower than 100%, however,  for the following reasons: 

1. There is a clear public benefit of drastically limiting new development in the Keys  that outweighs the private property interests of the owners of the buildable lots, 

2. The vast majority of those buildable lots were acquired after the adoption of  severe development limits in the Keys and thus the owners did not have a  reasonable expectation of development, and 

3. Most owners of those lots have made no efforts toward their development. 

We have been asking the County for years to prepare and release to the public a more  realistic computation of the amount (or range) of the potential takings liability, and the County has refused to do so. How can you come up with a number of new ROGOs  without such an analysis being done? We request that the BOCC direct the County  Attorney to prepare a realistic analysis and computation of the actual potential takings  liability based on the current state of the law and our particular facts. 

Moreover, we believe that the number of privately owned buildable residential lots that  has been computed by County staff is vastly inflated. It includes lots in zoning districts  that allow commercial or other reasonable nonresidential uses of the property. It  includes lots in every tier system, and environmentally sensitive lots should be  excluded. If only Tier III lots were taken into account, the 2,220 number for the  unincorporated County would be reduced to 1,553. At the very least, the number  should be reduced based on the expected number of lots to be acquired by the County  or the State for conservation purposes. Staff’s number includes lots that are platted lots  in areas without any infrastructure. The number also ignores measures that will be  taken in the future, under both existing programs and programs that staff has already  proposed, to take vacant lots out of the ROGO system. And the number has not been  reduced to account for the 444 administrative relief ROGOs that are currently held by  the County. We request that the BOCC direct County planning staff to come up with a  more accurate number of buildable residential lots. Once a more accurate number of  buildable lots is determined, staff should compute how many of those lots were acquired  before the adoption of the ROGO system and the number of such lots for which the  owner has not attempted to obtain a building permit, in order to derive an accurate  number for input into the analysis of takings liability. 

Once a more realistic analysis of potential takings liability has been performed and a  more accurate number of privately owned buildable residential lots with reasonable  expectations of development has been determined, the BOCC, with meaningful input  from the public, will need to decide whether the takings liability is an expense the  County could afford without accepting any new ROGOs for market-rate units and, if not,  what is the smallest number of new ROGOs that could be issued each year. 

Without more work being done to justify any new ROGOs along the lines stated above,  the County needs to request NO MORE ROGOs for market-rate units because … 

1. We are already at the 24-hour evacuation limit under the State’s evacuation  model. And, if anything, that limit should be reduced to account for recent rapid  intensification of storms due to climate change. 

2. The State’s evacuation model is flawed. It assumes evacuation ends at Florida  City, ignoring any evacuees from South Florida and Ocean Reef. It assumes  evacuations will occur evenly throughout the 24-hour period. It excludes certain  permanent residents, such as mobile home residents, liveaboards, and college  students. It understates the number of evacuees that will be in vacation homes and  vacation-rental homes during hurricane season. And it ignores future conversions of  mobile home sites into constructed home sites. 

3. Due to overdevelopment, the infrastructure of the Keys (roads, water, sewers,  schools) has been stressed to its limits and the quality of our nearshore waters and the  condition of our reef have been compromised.

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that the 24-hour evacuation requirement and the ROGO  system were implemented in order to ensure the safety of Keys residents in the event of  a hurricane evacuation and to preserve the significant natural resources of the Keys. 

Given the tight deadline we are facing with the State, please make the directions to  County staff that we are requesting in this letter at the July 17 BOCC meeting. 

Respectfully submitted, 

Ann Olsen 

On behalf of the Last Stand Board and the undersigned groups 

cc: Emily Schemper 

Robert Shillinger 

Coco Plum Beach Property Owners  Association Inc. 

Cudjoe Gardens Property Owners  Association  

Florida Keys Citizens’ Coalition, Inc. 

Friends of the Lower Keys (FOLKS) 

Islamorada Community Alliance 

Island of Key Largo Federation of  Homeowner Associations (The Federation) 

Izaak Walton League of America, Florida  Keys Chapter 

Key Deer Protection Alliance Keys Accountability Project 

Keys Last Stand 

Keys Accountability Project

Save-A-Turtle of the Florida Keys

South Point Homeowners, LLC 

Stock Island Association 

Sugarloaf Shores Property Owners Association, Inc. (SSPOA) 

Tavernier Community Association (TCA)  

Upper Sugarloaf Residents Association